Will Cong really benefit from T-decision?

(Without  Malice towards One and All)

Well, the Congress has taken a decision to bifurcate  the Andhra Pradesh and create Telangana, the 29^th Indian state.  Was it a political decision to deprive others – especially the BJP, which promise to do so if they come back to power in 2014? 

Or, a decision, conceding to widely accepted concept/principle/theory of smaller states for better administration?!

It is no secret that almost all parties were inconsistent on the ‘smaller states concept of better administration’ theory.  This was evident from the BJP, which boasts of creating 3 new states – Chattisgarh (MP), Jharkhand (Bihar) and Uttaranchal or Uttarakhand (UP), opposed to in same breath of erstwhile Mayawati-led BSP government’s decision to further bifurcate biggest Indian state – Uttar Pradesh into four.  In fact, Mayawati has also passed a resolution and forwarded it to the UPA led Central government. 

In such backdrop, how can the BJP’s possible ‘Prime Minister’s’  candidate Narendra Modi terming the Congress decision to carve out Telangana from Andhra Pradesh a political? (Read for electoral gains)

Contrary to this, even the Congress had to clear its stand on further dividing of Indian states, created in 1956 on linguistic basis.  If its decision, that too after five or six decades, on Telangana is genuine, why then it’s most adored and ‘iron lady’ Indira Gandhi, so bluntly opposed to in 1969? 

Well, for political convenience, the Congress may justify arguing the way wanted to, but certainly in most unconvincing manner. 

Similarly, the TRS too may arm with Fazal Ali Commission report – merger of erstwhile Hyderabad with Andhra with an option of ‘demerger’ any time thereafter – and also the first Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal’s oft comment describing then Hyderabad region as ‘adolescent’ marrying to a shrewd Andhra.  But, the fact remains that at the time too, it was its own leader’s acceptance for such proposal agreement.  In my last article, I re-produced a Telugu daily report, precisely the same (that’s Burugula Ramakrishna Rao, expressing his willingness and dismissing the existence of very word Telangana which was only created for erstwhile Nizam government’s revenue administration purpose.)

Well, the Congress has taken a decision and now the point of discussion shall be whether it would reap any political benefits out of it. If one has to critically analyze, the likely answer he or she gets is a straight ‘no.’  Reason, to get the T-Bill cleared in either in the upcoming parliament session or later, it require the principal opposition BJP’s support.  In such a situation, how come they deny any credit to the BJP, which is also trying hard to push its genuine support right from the beginning – First L K  Advani, apologizing not to consider the demand along with other three states they granted during its NDA regime, citing coalition compulsions – with an obvious reference to TDP, which opposed to, and later the party’s parliament leader, Sushma Swaraj daring in the Congress in Lok Sabha, to table T-Bill at the earliest, and reaping its benefit by winning yet another assembly seat in the by-poll.  Aren’t they true?

Thus far, the major claimants on either parliament or assembly seats in Telangana, bound to be the TRS (which had spearheaded the movement and pushed other major parties like the Congress, TDP and BJP to fall in line), the Congress, the BJP and CPI.

In such backdrop, the forthcoming assembly or parliament elections, the jubilant electorate of the region bound to give all those who made their dream come true, be given their pound of flesh.  No single party – whether national or regional can – boast a single claimants.

Possible share of major claimants in the 119 assembly as well 17 Lok Sabha seats can vision this way;

- TRS:  Set to grab maximum number of assembly seats and LS.  One should not surprise, if it bags 50 out of 119 and emerge as the single largest party.  Win as many as   8-10 LS seats on their own and if goes in for pre-poll alliance with the Congress, may remain content with 3-5, leaving 6-8 to its partner.  In case, the Congress get an opportunity to form UPA-III government, then total tally from the region can be 10-12 seats.  (No great gain for Congress, as it bound to face a white wash in rest of two regions, where the battle lines may be drawn between YSRCP and Telugu Desam).

- Congress:  No major gains.  That’s very clear 8-10 parliament and 20-30 assembly seats from the region, no great benefits as such.  Contrary to a total rout staring at them in rest two regions – Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra!

- BJP:  Likely to regain two lost Lok Sabha seats – Secunderabad and Hanamkonda (Warangal).  Certain to add yet another LS seat to their kitty – that’s Mahabubnagar from where erstwhile TDP strong leader, Nagam Janardhan Reddy, winning hands down as he too parted way for the T-cause.  As far assembly concerned, it is likely to get into double figure for the first time.

- CPI: Win back Nalgonda LS seat and also likely to win half a dozen assembly seats.

- MIM:  In spite of opposing T-statehood, none can stop retaining lone Lok Sabha seat in the region and trying to bag yet another couple, if it enters into some understanding with the YSRCP in Rayalaseema, where minority votes play significant role.  It should win half a dozen assembly seats and a couple in Rayalaseema too!

As far as TDP is concerned, one should not rule out winning couple of LS and more than a dozen assembly seats in Telangana region.  The TDP is a cadre-based party and enjoys support of settlers in several parts of the region like Rangareddy, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Adilabad.

The lone loser in the region may be YSRCP in the region.  Yet, it can win one or two parliament seats – Secunderabad and Nizamabad, if there is an alliance with MIM.  In Secunderabad, the YSRCP, besides minority Muslims can as well depend upon traditional Christian votes.  Thus it can open an account in region, but concentrating to sweep polls in rest two regions of the state.

If the state is bifurcated before elections, it would be a TRS-Cong coalition government in Telangana and YSRCP-led government in Andhra Pradesh consisting of Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra.  Otherwise, it will be YSRCP-lead coalition government consisting of TRS and MIM. (31-07-2013)