(Without Malice towards One and All)
Well, the Congress has taken a
decision to bifurcate the Andhra Pradesh
and create Telangana, the 29th Indian state. Was it a
political decision to deprive others – especially the BJP, which promise to do
so if they come back to power in 2014?
Or, a decision, conceding to
widely accepted concept/principle/theory of smaller states for better
administration?!
It is no secret that almost
all parties were inconsistent on the ‘smaller states concept of better
administration’ theory. This was evident from the BJP, which boasts of
creating 3 new states – Chattisgarh (MP), Jharkhand (Bihar) and Uttaranchal or
Uttarakhand (UP), opposed to in same breath of erstwhile Mayawati-led BSP
government’s decision to further bifurcate biggest Indian state – Uttar Pradesh
into four. In fact, Mayawati has also passed a resolution and forwarded
it to the UPA led Central government.
In such backdrop, how can the
BJP’s possible ‘Prime Minister’s’ candidate Narendra Modi terming the Congress
decision to carve out Telangana from Andhra Pradesh a political? (Read for
electoral gains)
Contrary to this, even the
Congress had to clear its stand on further dividing of Indian states, created
in 1956 on linguistic basis. If its decision, that too after five or six
decades, on Telangana is genuine, why then it’s most adored and ‘iron lady’
Indira Gandhi, so bluntly opposed to in 1969?
Well, for political
convenience, the Congress may justify arguing the way wanted to, but certainly
in most unconvincing manner.
Similarly, the TRS too may arm
with Fazal Ali Commission report – merger of erstwhile Hyderabad with Andhra
with an option of ‘demerger’ any time thereafter – and also the first Indian
Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal’s oft comment describing then Hyderabad region
as ‘adolescent’ marrying to a shrewd Andhra. But, the fact remains that
at the time too, it was its own leader’s acceptance for such proposal
agreement. In my last article, I re-produced a Telugu daily report,
precisely the same (that’s Burugula Ramakrishna Rao, expressing his willingness
and dismissing the existence of very word Telangana which was only created for
erstwhile Nizam government’s revenue administration purpose.)
Well, the Congress has taken a
decision and now the point of discussion shall be whether it would reap any
political benefits out of it. If one has to critically analyze, the likely
answer he or she gets is a straight ‘no.’ Reason, to get the T-Bill
cleared in either in the upcoming parliament session or later, it require the
principal opposition BJP’s support. In such a situation, how come they
deny any credit to the BJP, which is also trying hard to push its genuine
support right from the beginning – First L K Advani, apologizing not to
consider the demand along with other three states they granted during its NDA
regime, citing coalition compulsions – with an obvious reference to TDP, which
opposed to, and later the party’s parliament leader, Sushma Swaraj daring in
the Congress in Lok Sabha, to table T-Bill at the earliest, and reaping its
benefit by winning yet another assembly seat in the by-poll. Aren’t they
true?
Thus far, the major claimants
on either parliament or assembly seats in Telangana, bound to be the TRS (which
had spearheaded the movement and pushed other major parties like the Congress,
TDP and BJP to fall in line), the Congress, the BJP and CPI.
In such backdrop, the
forthcoming assembly or parliament elections, the jubilant electorate of the
region bound to give all those who made their dream come true, be given their
pound of flesh. No single party – whether national or regional can –
boast a single claimants.
Possible share of major claimants
in the 119 assembly as well 17 Lok Sabha seats can vision this way;
- TRS: Set to grab
maximum number of assembly seats and LS. One should not surprise, if it
bags 50 out of 119 and emerge as the single largest party. Win as many as
8-10 LS seats on their own and if goes in for
pre-poll alliance with the Congress, may remain content with 3-5, leaving 6-8
to its partner. In case, the Congress get an opportunity to form UPA-III
government, then total tally from the region can be 10-12 seats. (No great
gain for Congress, as it bound to face a white wash in rest of two regions,
where the battle lines may be drawn between YSRCP and Telugu Desam).
- Congress: No major
gains. That’s very clear 8-10 parliament and 20-30 assembly seats from
the region, no great benefits as such. Contrary to a total rout staring
at them in rest two regions – Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra!
- BJP: Likely to regain
two lost Lok Sabha seats – Secunderabad and Hanamkonda (Warangal).
Certain to add yet another LS seat to their kitty – that’s Mahabubnagar from
where erstwhile TDP strong leader, Nagam Janardhan Reddy, winning hands down as
he too parted way for the T-cause. As far assembly concerned, it is likely
to get into double figure for the first time.
- CPI: Win back Nalgonda LS
seat and also likely to win half a dozen assembly seats.
- MIM: In spite of
opposing T-statehood, none can stop retaining lone Lok Sabha seat in the region
and trying to bag yet another couple, if it enters into some understanding with
the YSRCP in Rayalaseema, where minority votes play significant role. It
should win half a dozen assembly seats and a couple in Rayalaseema too!
As far as TDP is concerned,
one should not rule out winning couple of LS and more than a dozen assembly
seats in Telangana region. The TDP is a cadre-based party and enjoys
support of settlers in several parts of the region like Rangareddy, Nizamabad,
Karimnagar and Adilabad.
The lone loser in the region
may be YSRCP in the region. Yet, it can win one or two parliament seats –
Secunderabad and Nizamabad, if there is an alliance with MIM. In
Secunderabad, the YSRCP, besides minority Muslims can as well depend upon
traditional Christian votes. Thus it can open an account in region, but
concentrating to sweep polls in rest two regions of the state.
If the state is bifurcated
before elections, it would be a TRS-Cong coalition government in Telangana and
YSRCP-led government in Andhra Pradesh consisting of Rayalaseema and coastal
Andhra. Otherwise, it will be YSRCP-lead coalition government consisting
of TRS and MIM. (31-07-2013)
