Has Jagan accomplish his objective? - Bhandaru Srinivas Rao
With the success of his “Jala Deeksha” near Jantar Mandar in Delhi, the former Congress MP from Kadapa, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, appears to have achieved his objective – i.e., to send strong message to UPA Chairperson and Congress President Sonia Gandhi that their party is in peril in Andhra Pradesh..
His ultimatum to Congress-led UPA government is now ‘loud and clear’. He made it clear that he holds the `button` and at any moment the one-month-old N Kiran Kumar Reddy government may fall. “Kiran`s government in Andhra is surviving at my mercy,” he thundered and with an equal effect he reiterated that his intention was not pull down the government as it was installed for the second successive time for his late father Dr Y S Rajasekhara Reddy.
But, the Congress panicked with Jagan`s `thunder` and immediately took up the `damage control` by holding out veil threats to initiate action against those who openly identified in the Jagan`s camp. As many as 24 MLAs attended the Delhi`s “Jala Deeksha” and the Congress though wanted to take disciplinary action, but scared of consequences that to follow. More than its Chief Minister and the PCC Chief, the party high command seems to rely more on the feed back given by the state Governor ESL Narasimhan, a former cop, who had been sent to Andhra Pradesh in difficult situation to `manage things.`
But those who attended the Jagan`s “Jala Deeksha” dare to challenge the party high command to take action against them. They are confident that the party high command will dare not take any action fearing fall of Kiran government and subsequently losing the state to Opposition. They also compare their act with that the Telangana MPs and MLAs, besides Ministers, who defy the party high command`s direction to restrain on T-issue, but taking active part in anti-government activities. “Same yard stick should be applied to both of us (those who attended the Jagan`s meeting and the MPs and MLAs of the T-region.,” is their contention.
Thus far, the party high command has been pushed to the wall. But it wanted its Governor to come to their rescue. As per their mentor`s directive, the Governor summoned the Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy as well the Praja Rajyam Party leader, Mr Chiranjeevi, to chalk out future course of action. The Governor apparently weighing pros and cons over possible fall out in case the party initiate disciplinary action against those erring 24 MLAs. The Governor and party high command are confident to make up that loss by roping in 14 of the 16 PRP MLAs, besides half a dozen MIM members. But, their worry is now, if the pro-Jagan MLAs number swells, then the party may be in deep trouble.
That`s the reason why the Governor apparently sought more time before initiating action against the erring MLAs to ascertain the actual number of MLAs who are willing to rock the Congress boat. If the number does not exceed 30, then the party high command may as well apply the Karntaka-type formula – i.e., disqualifying the 24 who defied the party directions by openly expressing their solidarity to former Kadapa MP, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. Thus, the ‘disqualification fear` may thwart others from any such misadventure in future and ensure the proposed Congress-minority government with the support of PRP and MIM to be in power for few more months. But, can such a decision be taken in the absence of a full-fledged speaker to the state assembly ? This is in the wake of genuine doubt expressed by former ap assembly speaker and senior TDP leader Yanamala Ramakrishnudu. According to him, the deputy speaker has no such powers.
Congress high command is apparently convinced with the fact that even the main Opposition Telugu Desam is also not so keen in destabilizing Kiran government. The party high command is also equally confident, that too after Pranab Mukherjee`s meeting with party MPs from Telangana, the demand for state bifurcation, can be `neutralized` with `power baits`. Some of the MPs appears jubilant of getting berths in the Central Cabinet, while others some key important posts in the party hierarchy.
With a shrewd and experienced cop in Raj Bhavan, the party high command is confident of crushing the Telangana agitations with iron hand. That`s what apparently transpired in Pranab`s meeting with Telangana MPs was evident from the `cold feet` developed by some of more vocal leaders like Ponnam Prabhakars-tye. At a morning TV debate the firebrand MP from Karimangar made it clear that their `resignations en masse` no way help achieving Telangana. He had also not ruled out some of his Telangana colleagues joining the Central Cabinet. He justifies no wrong in accepting ministerial berths as per the party high command wishes.
Thus far, the party high command seems to have realized that the bifurcation demand can be handled with much ease, but its immediate worry is the `growing support` to Jagan from within the party. Hence, it chose to `focus` its attention more on ensuring the `survival` of Kiran government rather than TRS demand for separate statehood, which may turn more complicated, if it dare to take any initiative. It indeed was quick to realize its mistake through December 9 statement by the Union Home Minister P Chidambaram.
In fact, the TRS which is firm on its demand, yet again gets disappointment with the Congress MPs attitude as well that party led UPA government at the Centre. They too appears in a `fix` as they relied most on Sonia and her party by time and again stating that Congress alone can help realize their dream. But, for time being, their dream appears shatters with no other option but to carry on their struggle single handedly.
TRS and its leadership are well aware of any unleashing of terror from their side only push state to use `force` resulting in `unrest` leading ultimately towards President`s Rule in the state.
As far as Jagan is concerned, his objective is 2014, but if situation thrust upon him, he is too glad to grab it. He is confident of his strengths and weakness in coastal and Rayalaseema, besides Telangana. He is more keen to buy more time for Congress government`s fall in the state, expecting possible political realignments. Political analysts are of the firm opinion that if mid-term elections thrust on Andhra, Jagan`s new party can easily walk away with 80-100 seats in coastal and Rayalaseema regions, leaving Telangana to their ‘fate.’
In that backdrop, I may accept to certain extent with my colleague analysts that Jagan chalking out his political strategies to `perfection` and accomplish his ultimate objective, sooner than later(14-01-2011)